Project Leader Graham Mills, Bureau of Meteorology

Meteorological data is fundamental to predicting fire danger and behaviour on timescales from seasonal to very short range. Seasonal factors affect fuel moistures and fuel availability while the variability on the very shortest time and space scales can cause marked variations in fire behaviour over very short distances or time intervals. Accurate fire weather forecasts can make all the difference to a community’s safety and to the overall success and wellbeing of firefighters and fire authorities in preparing for adverse fire weather.

This Bushfire CRC project aims to improve operational utility of fire weather forecasts and outlooks, by providing better knowledge and understanding of wind, temperature and humidity structures and distributions, on the very short term (1-12 hours), short to medium term, and seasonal time scales.

The outcomes will provide a range of trial forecast products tailored to the fire weather forecaster and based on hourly mesoscale numerical weather-prediction model output. These will be made available to forecasters nationally. These products will include forecast gustiness, grassland fire danger index, and forest fire danger index.

The research will link with communication and education activities of the Bushfire CRC, to enhance capability of the community and fire authorities to prepare for adverse fire weather.

Project Leader: Dr Graham Mills, Bureau of Meteorology, Ph: (03) 9669 4582