Fire Note 95: Large areas of southern Australia, from the east coast to the west coast, face above average fire potential for the 2012-13 fire season, despite the extensive fires in some parts of the country over the last 12 months. However, the area most at risk does not extend as far north as was seen in 2011-12. The above average forecast is due to the abundant grass growth from the high amount of rain from two strong La Niña events seen in the past two years across the eastern seaboard and South Australia. Fuel moisture content within forests is still high, but this rainfall has continued to provide widespread vegetation growth in the grasslands, which remain a threat. Elsewhere across southern Australia, the fire potential is considered to be average for 2012-13, but average fire conditions can still produce fast running fires. The Northern Australia Seasonal Outlook was published as Fire Note 93 in early August.
The Assessment is an output from the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre which brings together fire managers from across Australia each year to discuss fire potential across the country.