This research attempts to understand the use of worst case
scenarios in decision making. There is evidence that more effective
decision makers consider worst cases in planning and situation
assessment. Worst cases may be overlooked because they seem so
unlikely, but this can lead to serious mistakes and disastrous
outcomes.
Fire fighters are familiar with worst cases and know that
minimising them is likely to increase safety. Thinking about worst
cases is an exercise in imagination: You need to imagine
possibilities, as well as estimate probabilities. In the bushfire
fighting domain, worst cases may involve death, serious injury or
substantial loss of assets.
Through incident report analysis, targeted interviews and
investigation into training practices and procedures, this research
will develop a greater understanding of how worst cases can improve
decision making by bushfire fighters. By developing training
recommendations for fire agencies that are tailored to complement
existing structures, this research will improve safety in decision
making.
