|Acknowledging and Understanding Variability in Simulating Bushfires: Part 1 (Kilmore fire)
|Year of Publication
|French, I, H Woolf, M, Cechet, RP, Yang, T, L Sanabria, A
|The FIRE-DST project aimed to investigate how uncertainty within fire spread modelling could be examined while assessing the potential consequences (impacts) of an event. FireDST was designed to generate an ensemble of scenarios, that is: different realisations of the potential fire spread based on variations in the conditions in which the fire occurs. Geoscience Australia developed an approach and the tools to meet the following research objectives. Develop a methodology to assess and visualise the sensitivity of the fire spread to a range of modelling parameters. Demonstrate that this methodology can be used to explore sensitivity of the modelled fire spread to parameters describing the: surface weather, weather conditions in the upper atmosphere, fuel conditions, and ignition. Develop a methodology to assess the sensitivity of the estimated numbers of people and buildings exposed to and impacted by fire to a range of parameters determining: modelled fire spread, i.e. surface weather, fuel conditions and ignition, and vulnerability of buildings. Develop a methodology to model the impact of human action on building damage in fires. Develop a methodology to assess the sensitivity of modelled smoke movement to the fire spread. By addressing the questions above, the project aims to achieve the following outcomes. 1. Development of an integrated fire spread and impact assessment methodology and tool. 2. Incorporation of the functionality to explore variability in key parameters as part of an integrated fire spread and impact modelling tool. 3. Demonstration of a product that can provide an ensemble around the modelled fire spread and fire impact, rather than a best estimate. This allows stakeholders to explore the potential benefits of such information, as well as issues around user requirements and adoption. 4. Improved understanding of uncertainty in fire spread and impact modelling through sensitivity analysis of key input parameters. 5. Development of “proof-of-concept” for a system or approach that enables ensemble fire spread modelling, given the right input parameters. This includes an improved understanding of the information and system requirements for such a system. 6. Improved understanding of the information and system requirements for future products based on the methodologies developed by FIRE-DST This could be either an integrated fire and smoke spread and impact system, or a system quantifying uncertainty around projected fire and smoke spread or impact, or a combination of the two.